I was up the pub in Manila tonight talking to some expats. I was talking up the prospects for a stronger Filipino economy. I don't mean to imply that the Philippines is going to put out some startling performances any time soon, since the global economy is weakening. But I am implying that in 3-5 years the Philippines economy will do very well, and that in the next 0-3 years it will out-perform other markets.
Speaking to these people and you would think I'm talking pipe dreams. Not just expats. One of them had a Filipino friend who talked about corruption. Yes, there is terrible corruption in the Philippines. I would however argue that it will eventually be curtailed. Maybe gradually, maybe a radical fall with a new anti-corruption president. Clearly that is not Arroyo, though I would argue that corruption can't get any worse, so thus the Philippines has only upside in that respect. Its in the area of tax and land administration reform where I see the greatest prospect for gains. Greater tax receipts will allow the government to improve compliance.
I don't think these people see the positive factors. They are not looking at the empirical evidence, which is positive. I would also argue that these people are cynics or tragic, always too prepared to put down the Philippines. Its great sport, but one does have to acknowledge progress. I don't think its prejudice, I think its just being accustomed to a point of few, just as the biggest cynics are found at the bottom of the market. The evidence supports them. They can talk about where the market has come from, but can they offer any evidence for where its going.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
Speaking to these people and you would think I'm talking pipe dreams. Not just expats. One of them had a Filipino friend who talked about corruption. Yes, there is terrible corruption in the Philippines. I would however argue that it will eventually be curtailed. Maybe gradually, maybe a radical fall with a new anti-corruption president. Clearly that is not Arroyo, though I would argue that corruption can't get any worse, so thus the Philippines has only upside in that respect. Its in the area of tax and land administration reform where I see the greatest prospect for gains. Greater tax receipts will allow the government to improve compliance.
I don't think these people see the positive factors. They are not looking at the empirical evidence, which is positive. I would also argue that these people are cynics or tragic, always too prepared to put down the Philippines. Its great sport, but one does have to acknowledge progress. I don't think its prejudice, I think its just being accustomed to a point of few, just as the biggest cynics are found at the bottom of the market. The evidence supports them. They can talk about where the market has come from, but can they offer any evidence for where its going.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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