Strategies for buying property close to stations

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In my book on buying foreclosed property in Japan I raise a number of strategies for buying property in Japan. This story in the Japan Times highlights the application of one such strategy when buying property. The East Japan Railway Co is building a new railway station between Shinagawa and Tamachi stations. This type of 'infilling' will become more common, so its a good idea to identify the locations in which this is likely to occur and to buy property in those locations. The sites to look at are in areas where subways might be extended or new stations added. The principle guiding your decision-making will be:

1. Local minimum population density - look at neighbouring areas

2. Distance between train stations - look for anomalies

3. Explanation for anomalies - why is there no station there? Topographic anomaly so no settlement; perhaps a park, etc.

4. Growing population density - historical evidence that the area is growing in population. High rise developments, new stores like HokkaHokkaTai and McDonalds, etc are good signs to look for, but you can also look at Japan's very good population statistics. They offer you monthly changes in demographics.

5. Space for growth - stations need to be supported by near-station development. It is harder to develop a station if the railway company cannot build some type of shopping precinct to service it.

This approach can work on outer city lines or inner city lines. Of course, our intent is to be close, but not too close to such a development. We want to live close to amenities, the railway station. There is a big periphery around a likely site, and this raises your prospects of buying such a property as a foreclosure. You will find it hard to get such a property in Kanagawa, but not in Saitama. If we are going with this model, we are buying the foreclosed property to 'hold' as a rental property as we want to profit from anticipated future development. After a proposed new station is announced, you can expect property prices to double...as your property, which might be 7km from a railway station, might now be 3km away. Clearly we do best if we buy close to an existing line, but not too close.

This strategy can be applied to both land leases and freehold properties, as long as you are able to get an extension on your land lease. Read more about the nature of this development, as it will give you an idea of the dynamics of this approach.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Muslim rebels deserve fair consideration

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Living in the Philippines, you often here expatriates say that there is no risk living on the southern island of Mindanao. There are even those self-righteous souls who live in some of the more dangerous parts of the island. The reality however is that 'self-righteousness' can be very risky as human qualities go.

In this article, an Australian, Warren Rodwell, 53yo, is the latest person to be held captive by some Muslim rebel group. He is probably an expat of no consequence to anyone but those who know and love him. To the abductors he is worth just P1 million ($20,000).

In a certain context, we might argue that it is highly unfair or unethical for these Muslim rebels to resort to such measures. The reality however is that Rodwell's (Australian) government has effectively sanctioned the terrorists. We might ask what is an appropriate measure for a group of people to do when they are marginalised by their political system. Muslim people of Mindanao lived an autonomous, independent life on the southern island of Mindanao for centuries until the Spanish-American influence sought to resettle people from the more densely-populated northern & central islands to the south. This culminated, under democracy, in the marginalisation of the Islamic people, and their consequent disempowerment and loss of identity under "Catholic" policy. That's democracy you say! Well, this is just one of the problems with democracy. Extortion! Statutory law makes it possible for governments to use democracy for the purposes of extortion. Now whilst extortion is allowed under arbitrary statutory law, there is a common law tradition of extortion being illegal. Sadly, a fairly good tradition of common law has been trumped by arbitrary statute law in the West, and thus the Philippines.

Democracy is a system of extortion which imposes upon people the values of the majority on the basis of some arbitrary jurisdictional boundary. At this time, the boundary was sanctioned by the power of the Spanish, and sanctioned I guess you could argue by politically-allign Spanish colonists and the Catholic-supported Philippine government of the north. The Americans had a part in the resettlement as well, with the US-inspired Homestead Act, which saw large estates broken into 20-hectare losts for resettlers.

I personally think every effort should be made to negotiate a fair settlement with these people, with full recognition and empathy for their right to autonomy, and possibly sovereignty, given the existence of an independent Muslim state nearby. Personally, I'd prefer to see the Philippines become a federation of states, or a pan-ASEAN nation established along the likes of Europe with a common currency. Maybe this is the future, but the breaking down of trade barriers is likely to see this happen anyway.

I return to my original point. Filipinos are generally the most affable people. If they resort to extortion - its generally for good reason. In this case, whether we discuss the NPA or Muslim extremists, it is fair to say they are fighting extortion with extortion. Their marginalisation under democracy has been an act of extortion far grander in scale than anything they have perpetrated. For this reason, I hope the authorities give them due regard in these peace negotiations. I do not however expect it.

I will be the first to concede that there are Muslim terrorists with illegitimate interests in the world. The reality is that most of them are illiterate. I am not. These particular Muslims have a legitimate grievance against the Philippines (and arguably the American and Australian) governments for initiating, or otherwise sanctioning or tacitly endorsing the acts of their military forces.

Read more of my posts and you will readily see that democracy is not the only alternative to autocratic tyranny; its just a proxy for a representative's extortion. There is not a single form of democracy. Representative democracy is not really a form of democracy; its an extortion racket. You want democracy; then the only legitimate form for a nation-state is a 'meritocratic' democracy, where reason is the standard of value.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Is the DPJ doomed? Not just yet.

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I get the sense that Japan is looking at another substantive shift in its political game; though nothing transformational to be sure, at least not at this point. Some 9 members of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) have resigned as a result of the party's decision to increase the GST (consumption tax) to 10%.

I totally agree with their position. There is no question that the Japanese government needs to raise taxes to pay off its 'internal' debts, but taxing consumption is not the way to proceed. It ought to be taxing assets - most particularly land. Probably the best approach would be to totally cut off funding for the provincial governments and allow them to raise local government rates. This would offer some form of competitive pressure, as well as make these governments independently accountable.

It looks like we might be looking at a 'no confidence' motion in the Japanese PM, and thus a new election...unless a new political leader emerges. I'd say we might be looking at a return to the alternate party.

It must however be acknowledged that this could be considered 'posturing' by local party members trying to save face in their local electorates. i.e. Essentially such posturing entails playing musical chairs or erecting Chinese walls, where you resign from one party, set up another, and pretty well function as an pseudo-independent faction. How long can this go on? Well, musical chairs can go on for a long time if you keep changing political candidates at every election. Good luck with that game!

See the latest news at Japan Times.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Japan public finances still bad

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This article in the Japan Times highlights the treacherous state of public finances - in this case in Japan. Whilst on the face of it, Japan's budget deficit might look worse than Europe's, Japan is in a far better position because:

1. Japan has greater income earning capacity

2. Japan's debt is owed to Japanese citizens and corporations, which can taxed at higher rates, i.e. The government retains the power.

The positive news is that the Japanese government has actually managed to stabilise spending. The negative of course is that economic activity is not growing either. Expect Japanese interest rates to remain low for a long time. The flipside is that the Japan's government is between a rock and a hard place; they will soon have to do something about:

1. Raising taxes

2. Cutting spending

The disparity between local and international costs of capital preclude borrowing abroad.

Read more at the Japan Times website.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Buying property in the USA

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Comment by Bring the pain:

"There are plenty of countries offering 8% - do some research. Rest of the world in a bear market - obviously you are a Sepo and think the whole world (America) is in a bear market. American property is in a bear market because you have a retarded financial and banking system flow on effects include high unemployment, low GDP and unsustainable housing market due to dodgy loans. Bear markets are the best time to buy in a business cycle you moron. Having an asset depreciate in value means you lose money benny boy; get a grip on your economics. Again, the quality of housing in Japan is shocking. Who wants to live in a rabbit cage made out of plasterboard. Good luck getting 12% for a 1dk piece of rubish, good luck keeping the piece of rubish standing for more than 2 years. Rather buy a house in Swedan, houses made out of brick, stable banking system, and no earthquakes. If you want to lose money in Japan buy an investment property".

This is not a response to anything I wrote - but its worth answering. It is true that there are countries offering more than 8% yield. Unfortunately, they are outside of my area of interest because it does not make sense as an individual to have property in too many countries because I'd need to employ staff to manage them.

It is a gross generalisation to say that the US market is 'over-priced', as there are many areas in the USA where the affordability index is 2-3, compared to cities where it can be as high as 10x annual income. The trick then is to find those areas which offer a reasonable balance between lifestyle values and affordability, or reliable rental income and adequate yield, if that is important. Good online marketing can make the difference as well.

It is true that Japanese properties do depreciate rapidly; but that's why you buy property which is old, say 10-12 years old, thus 60% depreciated, and its more than offset by a 12-13% yield. This is most particularly the case in Japan where you can get a local loan and the ability to leverage your investment. The reality is that many people want to live in Japan, and for good reason. Personally, I did not by there for the yield, I bought for the lifestyle. But I was happy to help my ex-Japanese GF get a property from which she gets a 13% yield - its paid off now.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Why buy property in Japan?

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Comment by The real expert:

Why would I invest in something that has no capital appreciation? Instead of property investing with an unrealistic target of a 12% yield (never heard of a 5 million unit in north Tokyo), why wouldn't I put that cash into a fixed 8% term deposit? No risk and a guaranteed 8% return on investment, no maintenance headaches, no government red tape headaches, no flood headaches, no housing bubble headaches etc etc. Investing in the Tokyo real estate market would have to be the worst investment decision ever. If you buy a house in Western countries you will get appreciation on your investment, i.e the value of your house will go up unlike Japan where prices go down. Erik your article is total rubish and people should never buy houses in Japan for investment purposes.

The reason is because capital appreciate is just one issue - rent expense substitution or rental yield, depending on your perspective is the other issue. There is typically an inverse relationship between the two, i.e High capital appreciation or high yield. That is why Japanese yields are high. If you can find some structural distortion being corrected then you can get both, i.e. Say the Philippines today because it has 8% yield and good capital appreciation. i.e. There is the realisation that Asian labour is rising in cost, so even low-productivity Filipinos start looking appealing as a source of labour; most particularly because they make satisfactory call centre agents. This market does not rely upon the low-productivity ports in the Philippines. These issues will gradually be resolved, and the Philippines will be more broadly an appealing property market.

Japan only makes sense if you are buying a rural lifestyle property, an inner city land rental purchase of house, or suburban house for rent substitution; and even this might only make sense if you are earning Japanese income and planning to live there over 4 years. Since people love Japan, and 'hope' to live there, this can make a lot of sense.

The other issue is inflation and currency depreciation, which I have alluded to above. Bonds paying 8% in Japan? Unlikely - more likely 1% and paid is debased Japanese yen. The USD is also being debased, so need an bond indexed to inflation.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Living and working abroad

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There are obstacles to living abroad. But you know, its not as hard as you might think to live and work abroad if you are able to develop relationships in these countries or find forms of work that suit you. In my 'wonderings' I have come across people who find work abroad by doing different things. Consider the following:

1. Selling: I write books about buying property. Such book publishing allow me to live anywhere in the world because my store front is online.

2. Consulting is another activity that allows you to work anywhere in the world if you deal with your clients online.

3. Strategic career opportunities: There are certain jobs like doctors, nurses and teachers who are in strong demand around the world if you have decent qualifications.

4. Service jobs like teaching English, builders, trades jobs and tattoo artistry are also jobs that you can find if you travel. Generally though in these cases you need to tap into the informal economy, but consider this: In a large city like Tokyo, you can be sure there is a need for computer support services for all the English expatriates living there, because there are thousands there looking for a good deal who are getting ripped off because they don't speak Japanese, or have support. In such cases, forums offer support for most, but forums only offer limited support.

Different countries have different rules for staying in the country. i.e. Consider that the Philippines probably has the most liberal immigration laws. You can stay there 18 months before having to leave the country, but you pay around $30/month to extend your visa. Other than that, they care less what you do. In Japan, its a 90-day tourist visa, and hard otherwise to get a business or working visa unless you are sponsored. Having said that, you can fly to China or Korea every 90 days (3mths) if that suits you, or you can commute from another place and just stay the 90 days in gaijin houses (i.e. Short stay accommodation).

The intention of this strategy is to buy accommodation in different countries at the low-end of the market so that I can live a flexible and interesting life as a tourist. This is why a $28,000 dormitory in Japan appeals, with a $300/year rates bill, a $US55,000 house in a depopulating NZ regional city, rates a little pricey at $1700/year, or you can go a house in much of the USA for $80-120K. We also have a place and land in the Philippines.

This is truly a period of great flexibility thanks to technology. I would not equate this however with freedom. No country recognises your personal sovereignty, and no government functions on the basis of rationality as the standard of value. Under democratic tyranny of the 'populist' majority, we spread our assets widely. This is why grasslands are so prevalent. Their spores are basically blowing around the world. We like to travel light in a world of arbitrary government. Yes, that might sound a little tragic, but living a life of slavery to some over-priced, statutorily or artificially priced house is crazy. I don't own a house in Australia, my home country because with the average house costing 11.6x the average income in Sydney, I think I should be living in Japan, NZ or USA, where I can live in a decent place for 2-3 times earnings. Personally, I wish people would think so we can end this tyranny, but since we have a system of wealth extortion based on 'universal ignorance and passivity', I prefer to travel. If you are wondering where this ends up, it is either:

1. A life of repression - Japan is the model we are drifting towards - where you are all zombies entertained by mindless concrete, frivolities like alcohol, sex, etc.

2. A intellectual life - A form of meritocracy which does not yet exist, where economies grow at 16% per annum because they are not constrained by centralised government; which are not overtly materialistic because the people's intellectual sovereignty has been oppressed. In a world where ideas matter because there is a free market for them, as opposed to the statutorily regulated 'parliament' which has political parties act as gatekeepers. But you go on pretending you live in free countries because you are given some pretense of it. More on this matter at our politics blog.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com