My other great conversation tonight was with a Japanese businessman. He was a lot smarter and more interesting than most Japanese businessmen I talk to. No hint of arrogance and a moderately conceptual thinker. What the Japanese lack in capability they make up for in system thinking, working things through. They are not naturally critical thinkers, but some experiences have ensured that some of them are 'special', as was my conversation counterpart tonight. One of the truly Japanese gentlemen, and there is no better place to meet them than overseas.
We discussed Japan mostly. He had a lot of interesting things to say about Japan history post-WWII. I was talking about the prospect of mass Japanese emigration to the Philippines and such countries. There will come a time when the Japanese will build cities in the Philippines. The constitution however does not allow it. The question is how the issue is resolved. Well maybe private citizens will make the choice themselves by buying property in the names of Filipinos or setting up corporations. More likely I think Japanese corporations will set up 40/60 JVs but they will hold the rights for 75 years.
The pressing reason is the under-funded Japanese pension system. There is a lot of wealth in Japan, but its no longer so evenly spread. Consider that you could draw a ring around Japan, and most homeowners outside a certain perimeter would be 'on average' unable to meet their pension obligations. This engineer lives in Tokorazawa, no problem, he has a house worth $400-500K, no problem. Go out to Hanno, and they are just $50-300K, depending on the building age and proximity to the station. Go to the rural areas and these people are living on subsidised farm income, with houses with $10-30,000, land that no one wants. For those inward of Tokorazawa, they will have Thai or Filipino maids taking care of them in Japan. For those living in the outer perimeter, they will either die at 55-60yo of alcohol-related death or be paid off by the Japanese government to retire in the Philippines or another such place. This of course presents a problem. Japan would happily allow Japanese to go abroad, but they would suffer without people to replace them. Can we expect Japan to have an open-door policy? I think its coming. I think the decision to fingerprint foreigners entering the country is a sign of that desire to control 'foreign' crime, mostly Chinese organised crime. The Japanese would never lower themselves to commit a crime of course. This will of course take time to happen.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
We discussed Japan mostly. He had a lot of interesting things to say about Japan history post-WWII. I was talking about the prospect of mass Japanese emigration to the Philippines and such countries. There will come a time when the Japanese will build cities in the Philippines. The constitution however does not allow it. The question is how the issue is resolved. Well maybe private citizens will make the choice themselves by buying property in the names of Filipinos or setting up corporations. More likely I think Japanese corporations will set up 40/60 JVs but they will hold the rights for 75 years.
The pressing reason is the under-funded Japanese pension system. There is a lot of wealth in Japan, but its no longer so evenly spread. Consider that you could draw a ring around Japan, and most homeowners outside a certain perimeter would be 'on average' unable to meet their pension obligations. This engineer lives in Tokorazawa, no problem, he has a house worth $400-500K, no problem. Go out to Hanno, and they are just $50-300K, depending on the building age and proximity to the station. Go to the rural areas and these people are living on subsidised farm income, with houses with $10-30,000, land that no one wants. For those inward of Tokorazawa, they will have Thai or Filipino maids taking care of them in Japan. For those living in the outer perimeter, they will either die at 55-60yo of alcohol-related death or be paid off by the Japanese government to retire in the Philippines or another such place. This of course presents a problem. Japan would happily allow Japanese to go abroad, but they would suffer without people to replace them. Can we expect Japan to have an open-door policy? I think its coming. I think the decision to fingerprint foreigners entering the country is a sign of that desire to control 'foreign' crime, mostly Chinese organised crime. The Japanese would never lower themselves to commit a crime of course. This will of course take time to happen.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
2 comments:
I'm loving these articles as I plan to buy within a month or two. Great stuff. Keep it up. Just bought your book too. Did you look much around Kanagawa for properties?
I didn't look very much around Kanagawa. My brother married last year in a coastal town before Aoto which struck me as a good location. Hot springs, coastline and all. I mostly looked around Shizuoka, Saitama because I was Saitama based.
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