Australian property buyers set for retirement

On many occasions I have spoken of the huge amount of investment which is set to provide a huge amount of stimulus for the Australian economy over the next few decades. In the 1960s and 1970s we saw a rush of Japanese investment into Australian resources. Well in the next 20 years I would not be surprised to see $300-350 billion of mining investment in the industry, encompassing mostly offshore gas, iron ore, coal, coal seam gas, gold, base metals and alumina. Am I missing anything? Probably. The Chinese population is 10x Japan's and I have not even considered the other billion in India, which will also need a large amount of resources. India and China are not exactly mineral-poor economies, but mining in them is relatively disruptive compared to mining in Australia. There resource quality is not as good either. eg. India's coal is dirty, particularly its coking coal. China lacks coking coal, so these are good areas for investment.

The implication however is that Australia is going to have a strong market, so I would not be expecting property prices to fall. They will go sideways at worst, if the government opens up land releases. The reason to keep property prices hard is that it makes you work harder, you pay more taxes, and it ultimately makes you compliant with our fascist punitive government.
Sovereign risk is a problem in any country, and its easier than ever to shift funds and buy assets abroad. There are other reasons as well....foreign exchange benefits.

There is no question you will benefit from having assets in Australia. The AUD will be strong, though when our terms of trade is so strong usually Australians spend a lot on consumption. This is just one for reason to have assets overseas. The AUD is one of the most volatile currencies in the world. If you have the flexibility to be transferring funds at opportune times, you can save a great deal. For instance, we bought a house in NZ at USD0.50-0.53, its now 70c to the USD. The implication is the same for Australia.

Of course we want to be buying in markets with good fundamentals, or perhaps simply lifestyle benefits. My partner and I have property in NZ, Japan and the Philippines. We like these markets. I believe 84yen was a low for the Yen. That has not been my position for the last 2 years. That target was essentially reached. There will be a stronger currency looking ahead because of higher interest rates. Eventually the property market will recover, so you might want to look at foreclosed property. Of course if you can't borrow money in these markets its a bit more difficult, as you have to time your investment well. So you need to watch the charts. Of course we have provided guidance before through this site.

Japan is very cheap if you want a rural lifestyle place for just $USD20-50,000; its more in the city, but you don't need to live right in the city and pay $500,000 plus. Japan is a great place to be a tourist. The Philippines is not a lifestyle place for everyone, however it does have appeal as an investment destination as well.

From a currency perspective there is no need to rush your dollars out of Australia because the AUD is strong, and any interest rate increase to slow the economy will only aid the currency. The greater issue is timing. Key dates to consider are the elections coming up in the Philippines and Japan, plus I would not wait too long in the USA, as the surplus property will be soaked up. High apartment vacancy rates in places like Miami will be absorbed.

NZ Property Guide
Philippine Real Estate Guide
Foreclosed Japan Guide
Author
Andrew Sheldon
Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com