The problem in Japan is that a large group of old men associated with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) have traditionally run the country. These men are often the descendants of former PMs. One need only reflect on the last 3 PMs of Japan – all of them were the descendants of previous leaders.
1. Shinzo Abe, the grandson of a former prime minister.
2. Yasuo Fukuda, the son of a former prime minister
3. Taro Aso, the grandson of a former prime minister.
Japanese people of course like to elect outspoken and ‘weird’ people whom they hope will break with the past. This has yet to occur. Yet on 30th August 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) ousted the 54-year reign of the LDP which has ruled Japan since its formation in 1955 (aside from a 11-month hiatus in 1993). Under Japan's constitution, the DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama is assured to be the next Prime Minister of Japan. He will be formally appointed on 16th September 2009.
Many people will be hoping that new party leadership will mean change for Japan. That outcome seems improbable without good leadership. So what about Yukio Hatoyama - the leader of the DPJ? Well, he is unsurprisingly the grandson of a prime minister, who incidentally defeated Aso’s grandfather. Hatoyama might be considered a ‘pedigree politician’ with powerful family figures. His family is compared to the Kennedy’s in the USA. Hatoyama’s mother, Yasuko Hatoyama, is a daughter of Shojiro Ishibashi, the founder of Bridgestone Corporation. She was a big financial supporter when her sons established the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 1996.
Given their links to Japanese business it will be interesting to see whether ‘new’ money can out-manoeuvre the old zaibatsu conglomerates of the pre-WWII industrial era. Traditionally these corporations have had a strong influence on Japan, having a long association with the LDP. Another influential group is the civil service, though given their ‘safe’ positions, it seems probable that they will not disrupt reform if there is an agenda to do so, and that agenda has support.
The last time the DPJ had power was briefly in 1993. On that occasion, in the wake of the economic collapse, the fragile coalition of opposition parties were undermined and discredited by the LDP. That seems less likely on this occasion given the strength of the leader and the election result.
The DPJ's policies include plans to restructure the bureaucracy (expected to result in layoffs and pay-cuts); a monthly allowance for families with children, a reduction in petrol taxes; income support for farmers; free tuition for high school students; banning temporary work contracts in manufacturing; an increase in the minimum wage to Y1000; and no increase in the VAT sales tax until 2013.
The strength of the coalition seems assured for now since the other coalition parties won just 3 seats each compared to DPJ’s 221 seats. The People's New Party (PNP) comprises LDP members who opposed Koizumi’s autocratic style and post office privatisation, whilst the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is a socialist party which has witnessed a decline in support because of its support for North Korea. It can therefore be expected to be a weak party partner.
One might wonder whether the DPJ is the party to deliver economic prosperity to Japan given that it is considered the ‘Left of centre’ party in Japan. There is good reason to think that it will carry a reform agenda because the party was originally founded as a ‘centrist’ party. The move to the left prompted Yukio Hatoyama’s brother Kunio to leave the party. Yukio stayed with the party through several mergers with other opposition parties in 1998. He was DPJ Party Chairman and leader of the opposition (1999-2002), and DPJ Secretary-General before succeeding Ozawa as party leader on 16th May 2009. He was selected by fellow party members by a winning margin of 124 to 219 votes, defeating rival Katsuya Okada. Hatoyama has indicated that his wife Miyuki Hatoyama will play a prominent role as First Lady during his administration. This might suggest that he will attempt to gain broad-based people support as a means of driving political reform.
Katsuya Okada is another potential leader of the DPJ should Hatoyama fall from grace, as many Japanese leaders seem to do. He is the former president and current Secretary General of the DPJ, who will serve as Foreign Minister. He also has strong ties to business, being the second son of Takuya Okada, the founder of the Japanese retail giant AEON Group. He is a graduate of the University of Tokyo (law) and Harvard University. His political roots lie with the Takeshita faction LDP, though in 1993 he followed LDP faction leaders Tsutomu Hata and Ichirō Ozawa to join the Japan Renewal Party. Eventually they amalgamated with the DPJ and Minseito in 1998. He became president of the DPJ on 18th May 2004.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
1. Shinzo Abe, the grandson of a former prime minister.
2. Yasuo Fukuda, the son of a former prime minister
3. Taro Aso, the grandson of a former prime minister.
Japanese people of course like to elect outspoken and ‘weird’ people whom they hope will break with the past. This has yet to occur. Yet on 30th August 2009 the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) ousted the 54-year reign of the LDP which has ruled Japan since its formation in 1955 (aside from a 11-month hiatus in 1993). Under Japan's constitution, the DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama is assured to be the next Prime Minister of Japan. He will be formally appointed on 16th September 2009.
Many people will be hoping that new party leadership will mean change for Japan. That outcome seems improbable without good leadership. So what about Yukio Hatoyama - the leader of the DPJ? Well, he is unsurprisingly the grandson of a prime minister, who incidentally defeated Aso’s grandfather. Hatoyama might be considered a ‘pedigree politician’ with powerful family figures. His family is compared to the Kennedy’s in the USA. Hatoyama’s mother, Yasuko Hatoyama, is a daughter of Shojiro Ishibashi, the founder of Bridgestone Corporation. She was a big financial supporter when her sons established the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 1996.
Given their links to Japanese business it will be interesting to see whether ‘new’ money can out-manoeuvre the old zaibatsu conglomerates of the pre-WWII industrial era. Traditionally these corporations have had a strong influence on Japan, having a long association with the LDP. Another influential group is the civil service, though given their ‘safe’ positions, it seems probable that they will not disrupt reform if there is an agenda to do so, and that agenda has support.
The last time the DPJ had power was briefly in 1993. On that occasion, in the wake of the economic collapse, the fragile coalition of opposition parties were undermined and discredited by the LDP. That seems less likely on this occasion given the strength of the leader and the election result.
The DPJ's policies include plans to restructure the bureaucracy (expected to result in layoffs and pay-cuts); a monthly allowance for families with children, a reduction in petrol taxes; income support for farmers; free tuition for high school students; banning temporary work contracts in manufacturing; an increase in the minimum wage to Y1000; and no increase in the VAT sales tax until 2013.
The strength of the coalition seems assured for now since the other coalition parties won just 3 seats each compared to DPJ’s 221 seats. The People's New Party (PNP) comprises LDP members who opposed Koizumi’s autocratic style and post office privatisation, whilst the Social Democratic Party (SDP) is a socialist party which has witnessed a decline in support because of its support for North Korea. It can therefore be expected to be a weak party partner.
One might wonder whether the DPJ is the party to deliver economic prosperity to Japan given that it is considered the ‘Left of centre’ party in Japan. There is good reason to think that it will carry a reform agenda because the party was originally founded as a ‘centrist’ party. The move to the left prompted Yukio Hatoyama’s brother Kunio to leave the party. Yukio stayed with the party through several mergers with other opposition parties in 1998. He was DPJ Party Chairman and leader of the opposition (1999-2002), and DPJ Secretary-General before succeeding Ozawa as party leader on 16th May 2009. He was selected by fellow party members by a winning margin of 124 to 219 votes, defeating rival Katsuya Okada. Hatoyama has indicated that his wife Miyuki Hatoyama will play a prominent role as First Lady during his administration. This might suggest that he will attempt to gain broad-based people support as a means of driving political reform.
Katsuya Okada is another potential leader of the DPJ should Hatoyama fall from grace, as many Japanese leaders seem to do. He is the former president and current Secretary General of the DPJ, who will serve as Foreign Minister. He also has strong ties to business, being the second son of Takuya Okada, the founder of the Japanese retail giant AEON Group. He is a graduate of the University of Tokyo (law) and Harvard University. His political roots lie with the Takeshita faction LDP, though in 1993 he followed LDP faction leaders Tsutomu Hata and Ichirō Ozawa to join the Japan Renewal Party. Eventually they amalgamated with the DPJ and Minseito in 1998. He became president of the DPJ on 18th May 2004.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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