Commentators raise the spectre of Arab OPEC oil countries coming off the USD peg. For a long time commodities, including oil have been priced in USD. This was because the US was the world’s largest market and considered a stable, strong currency. Over the last 20 years US supremacy and its currency have never looked weaker. Commentators are questioning whether the USD should be the basis of commodities trading. It must be remembered however that just because the USD is the currency for receipt of commodity trades, in fact its only really a reference price. There is nothing stopping a commodity trade from being converted from the USD into any currency. The issue is rather - which currency will the Arab countries decide to hold their receipts. The 'hardness' of commodities is readily apparent when we see oil prices strongest at times of USD weakness; notwithstanding the fundamental issues driving oil prices.
If the Arab OPEC countries (the most important of which are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iraq) should decide to change the basis for currency receipt it would make little difference. If the Arab world decided to retain their receipts in another currency that would be a different issue. We need to consider that Arabs are probably more likely to opt for commodity holdings like gold, silver, platinum and palladium. But these are very illiquid markets, hardly large enough to retain all their petrodollars. Of course if there is an international agreement to restore a gold standard it would be an attractive investment. But few people are calling for that. I would suggest we are likley to see more Arab invcestment in the Arab world, but also in Asia. When the worst carnage is over in speculative asset classes like property and equities, then Arab investors will be well positioned to invest in these asset classes.
I would think that the Asian Islamic nations of Indonesia, the Philippines and southern Thailand might have particular appeal for Arab investors. Indonesia is more difficult because of its unfriendly visa and investment rules. There is already an attractive framework for Arab property investment in the Philippines. Consider the following:
1. There are a lot of Filipinos working in the Arab world, so one would expect this to result in trade, personal and cultural alliances
2. The Philippine peso is not pegged to the USD, and since the peso is becoming less dependent on US trade each day, this augers well for the peso. Japan has displaced the USA as its largest trading partner, and China is also expected to become more important trading partner.
3. Filipinos working in the Arab world can also be expected to invest in the Philippines since most retain and support family in their home country.
The collapse of oil prices might be a factor underpinning greater Arab investment in the Philippines. The other factor might be the shift towards autonomy for the southern Muslim State of Mindanao. For those unaware, the southern island of Mindanao has a large Islamic population dating back to the 11th century, at a time when Arabs were trading in Asia. The Muslim Filipinos were able to resist for the most part Spanish colonisation. It was the independent Philippine-American administrators who finally subjugated the Filipino Muslims by encouraging land occupation by Christians from the Visayan Islands. We can therefore understand the Muslim aggression when you consider the central government’s attempt to marginalise their population.
Hostilities recently broke out again, however at some point a peace will be reached. The opportunity to benefit from a resurrection of economic development remains good once peace can be established. It seems likely that Mindanao will offer the Arab world a plausible base to expand their presence in Asia since Asia promises to be the centre of global economic development. I would expect some Arab investors to be picking over the plethora of foreclosed property assets in the Philippines, particularly in the island of Mindanao. Might we see some resorts in the Sulu Islands.
Investment in Mindanao can occur at many levels. There are of course Arab men with Filipino wives and vice versa, there are Muslim investment funds, Muslim development banks, as well as the large international agencies like the ADB and WB which recognise the under-performance of the region. That just makes it a more attractive investment when peace finally comes.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
If the Arab OPEC countries (the most important of which are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iraq) should decide to change the basis for currency receipt it would make little difference. If the Arab world decided to retain their receipts in another currency that would be a different issue. We need to consider that Arabs are probably more likely to opt for commodity holdings like gold, silver, platinum and palladium. But these are very illiquid markets, hardly large enough to retain all their petrodollars. Of course if there is an international agreement to restore a gold standard it would be an attractive investment. But few people are calling for that. I would suggest we are likley to see more Arab invcestment in the Arab world, but also in Asia. When the worst carnage is over in speculative asset classes like property and equities, then Arab investors will be well positioned to invest in these asset classes.
I would think that the Asian Islamic nations of Indonesia, the Philippines and southern Thailand might have particular appeal for Arab investors. Indonesia is more difficult because of its unfriendly visa and investment rules. There is already an attractive framework for Arab property investment in the Philippines. Consider the following:
1. There are a lot of Filipinos working in the Arab world, so one would expect this to result in trade, personal and cultural alliances
2. The Philippine peso is not pegged to the USD, and since the peso is becoming less dependent on US trade each day, this augers well for the peso. Japan has displaced the USA as its largest trading partner, and China is also expected to become more important trading partner.
3. Filipinos working in the Arab world can also be expected to invest in the Philippines since most retain and support family in their home country.
The collapse of oil prices might be a factor underpinning greater Arab investment in the Philippines. The other factor might be the shift towards autonomy for the southern Muslim State of Mindanao. For those unaware, the southern island of Mindanao has a large Islamic population dating back to the 11th century, at a time when Arabs were trading in Asia. The Muslim Filipinos were able to resist for the most part Spanish colonisation. It was the independent Philippine-American administrators who finally subjugated the Filipino Muslims by encouraging land occupation by Christians from the Visayan Islands. We can therefore understand the Muslim aggression when you consider the central government’s attempt to marginalise their population.
Hostilities recently broke out again, however at some point a peace will be reached. The opportunity to benefit from a resurrection of economic development remains good once peace can be established. It seems likely that Mindanao will offer the Arab world a plausible base to expand their presence in Asia since Asia promises to be the centre of global economic development. I would expect some Arab investors to be picking over the plethora of foreclosed property assets in the Philippines, particularly in the island of Mindanao. Might we see some resorts in the Sulu Islands.
Investment in Mindanao can occur at many levels. There are of course Arab men with Filipino wives and vice versa, there are Muslim investment funds, Muslim development banks, as well as the large international agencies like the ADB and WB which recognise the under-performance of the region. That just makes it a more attractive investment when peace finally comes.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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